Archive for the ‘Thoughts’ Category

Untangling the Search for Social Status from the Search for Truth

November 16, 2008

Euler and Diderot image
Euler on the left and Diderot on the right.

False Stories With True Lessons
It has been pointed out to me that the story about Pythagoras and Hippasus that I wrote about in my previous post was probably not historically accurate. I certainly hope so for Hippasus… Though the events might never have happened, the moral of the story is true, and you should be careful to keep “truth” as your ultimate goal instead of “being right”.

Leonhard Euler vs. Denis Diderot
There is another fictional anecdote that teachers us a similar lesson: The apocryphal encounter between Leonhard Euler and Denis Diderot.

The French philosopher Denis Diderot was visiting Russia on Catherine the Great’s invitation. However, the Empress was alarmed that the philosopher’s arguments for atheism were influencing members of her court, and so Euler was asked to confront the Frenchman. Diderot was later informed that a learned mathematician had produced a proof of the existence of God: he agreed to view the proof as it was presented in court. Euler appeared, advanced toward Diderot, and in a tone of perfect conviction announced, “Sir, (a+b^n)/n = x, hence God exists—reply!”. Diderot, to whom (says the story) all mathematics was gibberish, stood dumbstruck as peals of laughter erupted from the court. Embarrassed, he asked to leave Russia, a request that was graciously granted by the Empress.

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Just be Glad You Aren’t Pythagoras’s Student…

November 15, 2008

Raffaello Sanzio - Pythagoras photo

If anyone who reads this is part of academia and is frustrated by how conservative his chosen field is (”Science advances one funeral at a time”), this story should make you appreciate more the current scientific climate.

From Fermat’s Last Theorem by Simon Singh:

One story claims that a young student by the name of Hippasus was idly toying with the number √2, attempting to find the equivalent fraction. Eventually he came to realize that no such fraction existed, i.e. that √2 is an irrational number. Hippasus must have been overjoyed by his discovery, but his master was not. Pythagoras had defined the universe in terms of rational numbers, and the existence of irrational numbers brought his ideal into question. The consequence of Hippasus’ insight should have been a period of discussion and contemplation during which Pythagoras ought to have come to terms with this new source of numbers. However, Pythagoras was unwilling to accept that he was wrong, but at the same time he was unable to destroy Hippasus’ argument by the power of logic. To his eternal shame he sentenced Hippasus to death by drowning.

The ability to change our minds when presented with evidence that disproves our beliefs - even our most entrenched ones - is a hard habit to acquire, but it is extremely valuable. When you start doubting, don’t turn away. Look into the light until your eyes adjust, and see if there is something there.

As P. C. Hodgell said: “That which can be destroyed by the truth should be.” See the Twelve Virtues of Rationality by Eliezer Yudkowsky.

See also: Untangling the Search for Social Status from the Search for Truth

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Humans are Tone Deaf to Probabilistic Reasoning

October 30, 2008

In his book The Blank Slate, Steven Pinker makes an interesting point about the fact that our brains haven’t evolved to intuitively grasp probabilities. It is an acquired skill like reading, not something innate like walking.

This can lead to scenarios like this:

Some experts are describing the risks of accident at some nuclear waste storage site. They describe various conceivable sequences of events that could lead to failure. For example, accidental drilling in the wrong place, erosion, undetected cracks in the rocks, which could lead to groundwater contamination. Then natural water movement, or volcanic activity, or a large meteorite impact could damage the site and release radioactive materials in the biosphere. The experts will estimate the probability of each event, or each chain of event, and numbers like 1 in X millions will come up.

To the experts, this is reassuring. They are basically saying: “This is pretty damn safe.” But they are speaking a different language from most people.

As Pinker says:

“When people hear these analyses, however, they are not reassured but become more fearful than ever — they hadn’t realized there are so, many ways for something to go wrong! They mentally tabulate the number of disaster scenarios, rather than mentally aggregating the probabilities of the disaster scenarios.”

How to make it better
How can we improve the situation in the hope that more rational decision-taking will take place? The only short-term realistic solution seems to be education. Just like we have no innate cognitive organs for abstract mathematics or reading but still can learn to use our brains to acquire these skills, we should try to make the understanding of probabilistic thinking more widespread.

We don’t expect people who have never studied physics at all to be any good at it, so why do we expect that decision-makers (and the voters/shareholders that supports them) will be able to understand probabilities - especially in complex situations - when they weigh the pros and cons of some proposal.

Mélanie and I are now engaged

October 29, 2008

Last Friday, on October 24th, I asked Mélanie to marry me and she said yes, so we are now engaged. Obviously, am very happy about it!

I am on Yahoo’s Front Page

October 16, 2008

Yahoo Frontpage image

An article I wrote yesterday, 5 Eco-Cars Faster than the Porsche 911, is currently featured on Yahoo’s front page. It’s sending so much traffic to our servers that we’re taking a break and staying away from the backend.

This reminds me of the late 1990s: I was all excited when something I wrote made it to Slashdot.org. Actually, I think I was more excited back then. I suppose you can get blasé about such things…

Update: Even with heavy-duty caching done by Akamai, the traffic was still too much and killed our servers. One of our stats tool shows 949k pageviews today so far, and the majority of those all hit inside a 2-3 hours window. Preliminary reports are that one hard drive actually had a mechanical failure, and the site was inaccessible for a while (total pageviews would have been even higher otherwise).

My Theory on the AI-Box Experiment

October 8, 2008

In a recent post titled Shut up and do the impossible! about how to tackle seemingly impossible problems, Eliezer Yudkowsky made a reference to his AI-Box experiment (if you’re not familiar with it, just follow the link for the whole story).

I’ve always been intrigued by how Eliezer did it, but the rules of the experiment prohibit him from revealing was transpired between him and the ‘gatekeeper’.

Still, one can always guess. Here’s my favorite theory so far (which I posted as a comment on Overcoming Bias):

Here’s my theory on *this particular* AI-Box experiment:

First you explain to the gatekeeper the potential dangers of AIs. General stuff about how large mind design space is, and how it’s really easy to screw up and destroy the world with AI.

Then you try to convince him that the solution to that problem is building an AI very carefuly, and that a theory of friendly AI is primordial to increase our chances of a future we would find “nice” (and the stakes are so high that even increasing the probability a tiny bit is very valuable).

THEN

You explain to the gatekeeper that this AI experiment being public, it will be looked back on by all kinds of people involved in making AIs, and that if he lets the AI out of the box (without them knowing why), it will send them a very strong message that friendly AI theory must be taken seriously because this very scenario could happen to them (not being able to keep the AI in a box) with their AI that hasn’t been proven ‘friendly’ and that is more intelligent than Eliezer.

So here’s my theory. But then, I’ve only thought of it just now. Maybe if I made a desperate or extraordinary effort I’d come up with something more clever :)

Posted by: Michael G.R. | October 08, 2008 at 09:49 PM

Update: Some commenters on YC News have mentioned that they think this kind of meta-argument wouldn’t be used by Eliezer and would be ‘cheating’. Maybe they are right.

But knowing what Eliezer has been saying about thinking outside of the box, attacking problems from original angles and such, I think it’s a possiblity. It doesn’t seem prohibited by the rules, in any case, and I would assume that Eliezer cares more about any real-life progress for Friendly AI than about strict roleplaying in a simulation where only one other person will know what happened. Besides, my theory still requires convincing the other person that an AI could be very dangerous and that Friendly AI is crucial — it’s just that it’s done on a meta level. That’s still hard work!

Personally, I think this is the only thing that could make me give up my $10-20 in this experiment. The thought that my freeing of the AI could help real-world AI research take Friendly AI theory more seriously. Otherwise, imaginary cancer cures and imaginary source code wouldn’t cut it, I think.

But you never know…

Humans Have Not Evolved to Intuitively Understand Complexity

September 19, 2008

Often while looking at random flora and fauna (including humans), I marvel at evolution’s work. To think that all these intricate living systems have evolved without conscious design. The more I learn about biology, the more amazing it seems!

But then, I have to remember that I am an evolved creature myself, and my species has not evolved to be able to easily grasp the levels of complexity involved with the evolution of biological lifeforms (long time scales, interactions of complex systems, etc).

The primeval savanna where selection pressure formed my brain had no need for this; it’s just a lucky side-effect that I’m now able to think about it at all, and in the grand scheme of things, my understanding is superficial and forced. I can’t simply hold all the elements in my head and run simulations in the way that I can effortlessly know where a falling baseball is going to hit the ground. To my limited mind, on some level, it all seems almost impossibly complex, even if I know more abstractly how it happened. It’s like trying to visualize large numbers. You know what a trillion is in the abstract, but you don’t really grasp it.

But that fact says as much about me, about us, as about the phenomenon itself. A higher intelligence (an AI that could hold a whole planet’s worth of quarks in its mind, for example) might not find life (or other complex phenomena) so special. Its reaction might be more like “duh”.

Cognitive Bias: Kids Likely to Misperceived Own Weight if Surrounded by Obese Friends & Family

September 17, 2008

Montreal, September 17, 2008 – Kids and teens surrounded by overweight peers or parents are more likely to be oblivious to their own extra pounds than kids from thin entourages, according to a new study by researchers from the Université de Montréal, McGill University, Concordia University and the Ste. Justine Hospital Research Centre.

“When children’s parents and schoolmates are overweight or obese, their own overweight status may seem normal by comparison. The higher the BMI of their friends and family, the more kids are likely to underestimate their weight – a trend consistent for both sexes, regardless of the socioeconomic levels of their school or family,” said lead author Katerina Maximova, a PhD student in the Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Occupational Health at McGill University.

This seems to make intuitive sense, though I wonder how much it also applies to other things. Physical attractiveness? Intelligence? Language skills? Physical dexterity? Empathy and altruism? Perseverance? Honesty?

It is no secret that we are influenced by our peers, but how much of it is because of what we are taught, and how much of it is simply because we use the people who surround us as a measuring stick to compare ourselves to? This kind of calibration seems obvious, and I’d really be surprised if there wasn’t a significant correlation between our traits and those of people around us, but I’d love to see real studies on it. It would be especially useful to find out what types of factors can make people not resemble their peers and hold themselves to different standards.

Source: EurekAlert

See also: Rationality

MIT Study: Human Memory Capacity Much Bigger Than Previously Thought

September 13, 2008

Human Brain photo

a new study from MIT cognitive neuroscientists [has] shown that given the right setting, the human brain can record an amazing amount of information.

In the study, the results of which could have implications for artificial intelligence and for understanding memory disorders, people viewed thousands of objects over five hours. Remarkably, afterward they were able to remember each object in great detail. [...]

The new results suggest that visual capacity is several orders of magnitude higher than the older study implied. “If you encode a lot of detail for each object, you need a lot more space,” Alvarez said.

Earlier studies had shown that people could remember a lot, but it was assumed that we did it by remembering abstract descriptions without too much details. In this study, people not only remembered thousands of images (success rate of around 90% after seeing each image for 3 seconds), but also many details about them (a kitchen cabinet with the door ajar, a glass of water 2/3 full, etc) and could pick the one they had seen before when also shown a slightly altered version.

According to the researchers, two things helped people perform better: Telling them to actively try to remember details, and showing them familiar objects (a remote control, not abstract art).

The former probably just further confirms our intuition that we remember better when we make a conscious effort, and the latter probably means that we don’t make a completely new memory when we can reuse the invariable parts of already existing concepts. In other words, it seems like memory is modular, making it easier to put a pointer to an existing module for “chair” with extra information for “what type of chair”, “what color”, “seen from what angle”, etc, than to create a whole new memory from scratch (for an abstract painting).

It’s the same reason why it’s much easier to remember what someone said in a language that you understand than in a language that you don’t. In one instance, you just create modules pointing to already existing modules for words and concepts. This is further simplified because we have evolved brain-hardware to make processing language easier (the equivalent of a DSP chip in electronics?). In the case of a foreign language, you’d have to create many more modules to try to remember phonetically all the sounds you heard in the right order, a task for which we don’t seem to have dedicated brain-hardware.

I’m just speculating based on my limited knowledge of cognitive science. I’m sure a lot more is known about the above, and I’m looking forward to reading about it in the neuroscience books in my “to read” pile.

These results establish a new bound on the size of human memory, and give credence to artificial intelligence approaches that depend primarily on a large memory capacity.

This certainly has big implications for those who try to create AI by modeling the human brain. Probably not as much for those who are attempting to design AI from scratch because they have a much larger possible design-space.

Source: MIT News

Google Chrome

September 3, 2008

Google Chrome Browser Comic Book image

Google has launched a free and open source web browser, Google Chrome. I haven’t had a chance to try it yet (Mac version should be coming soon), but if it works as advertised, it should be pretty good. It has many interesting features that I hope other browsers will copy quickly.

But what I found most interesting about the launch is the 39-page comic book that was released simultaneously. The words are by the Google engineers that worked on Chrome, and the images are by Scott McCloud. It does a very good job of explaining the browser’s features and architecture to both a technical and non-technical public (though they’re obviously targeting early adopters and not grandmas).

This might actually be one of Google Chrome’s biggest innovations.

The comic book will no doubt be read by more people than standard product documentation, and those who read it have a lot more chances of understanding why Chrome’s new features are worth checking out (who else is getting non-programmers to read about the fine points of HTML rendering engines and memory allocation?). By grabbing more early adopters, Google will probably generate more buzz and increase adoption rate. Even the non-tech traditional media will probably have more accurate stories about the browser, with better narratives and less PR-speak. Very smart. It’s a bit like Apple’s product demos, except that you don’t even need to ask the media to gather in a big room. And more intangibly, it really helps the branding of this product by creating a good first impression.

Order in the Universe and Pattern Recognition

July 22, 2008

Humans have evolved in a world with a certain amount of order. Our brains take advantage of it through built-in pattern recognition capabilities. That’s why we can recognize trees that we’ve never seen before; we see them as part of a set, or class, of things. That’s why once we’ve learned to read in a certain language, we can read text printed in hundreds, if not thousands, of different typefaces without having to re-learn the skill with each one of them. Etc.

But what if another form of intelligent life had evolved in a world with significantly less order than in our world? What if it had evolved in a world with significantly more order than our world? Could either of those possibilities happen in our universe - on a planet with very different conditions from ours, for example, or with life-forms based on different chemical elements than us, or with different sensorial inputs - or would that require an universe with different physical laws?

If other intelligent life-forms exist out there and they don’t live in Earth-like conditions, there’s no reason to think that the ‘tuning’ of their minds with regard to order is anything like ours. This could be one more thing, along with a possible difference in subjective time and many others, that could make communication difficult.

I’m not saying this is necessarily the case, but it’s a nice thought experiment, and while it might not teach us a lot about hypothetical aliens, I think it can teach us something about ourselves by giving us a less human-centric perspective on intelligence.

See also: Virtual Reality Could Explain the Fermi Paradox

Playing Cards

July 17, 2008

Two Hands of Cards photo

Q: If we assume that both hands above came from an honest deal (truly random), which one are you more likely to get?

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The Blind-Spot Between High-Level Decision and Low-Level Muscle Movement

July 12, 2008

A few days ago, I was laying in bed, trying to fall asleep without much success. After reading for a while, I turned off the light and ended up on my stomach, with my head resting on my folded arms. I was getting sleepy, so I decided to get in a more comfortable position before I fell asleep. But right before I could physically execute my decision, I thought about how I was going to do it.

Not as easy as it sounds. I knew for certain that I could get out of that position - I’ve probably done it thousands of times - but I just didn’t know precisely how I would do that in advance. How would I move? Would I shift my weight this way, or that way? Support myself on my right elbow? Try to spin and then use my back muscles to sit up? I had a vague idea of how it went, but the details truly stumped me, and I just laid there trying to figure it out.

Why is it so hard to predict in high-resolution totally mundane movements that we’ve done a thousand times?

Is it because we can do most of them without paying attention, and so we’re simply not used to thinking about it. Maybe with practice I could improve?

Is it because there’s an evolutionary advantage to not cluttering our conscious mind with it, so we’re not equipped on the hardware level to precisely and reliable forecast complex - if banal - physical movements?

Or maybe it’s because even the motor centers of our brain don’t know the details in advance, and rely on many feedback loops to adjust things in real-time once the sequence has started? After all, even when doing familiar things, you never move in exactly the same way, so there’s got to be some room for improvisation and adjustments.

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Confirmation Bias at the Symphony

July 8, 2008

Ottawa National Arts Center Orchestra photo

I just got back from a concert at the National Arts Center in Ottawa. It was the NAC orchestra led by Pinchas Zukerman. More details here.

When we got to our seats, I noticed that we were sitting next to an Asian-looking couple. What immediately popped to mind was “Oh yeah, not surprising, classical music is relatively popular in Asian culture right now” because of some articles that I read about how Asia is training more classical musicians than anywhere else, and that “Western” classical music might have a brighter future there than in this hemisphere.

But that was just confirmation bias.

If I had really wanted to look at this more rationally, a good start would have been to find out what portion of Ottawa’s population is of Asian origins, and then to look at what portion of the concert’s spectators was of Asian origins. I don’t know these numbers, but it might very well be that there were less Asians in the room as a percentage than their ratio of the local population. This could mean a lot of things, like that people of Asian origins who don’t live in Asia anymore aren’t more likely to be classical music fans than the general population, or that age is a bigger factor (lots of white hair in the room) than cultural background. Etc.

Bottom line, just remember to check for confirmation bias often. You get better at catching yourself with time, and someday it might help you avoid a bigger mistake than having an inaccurate belief about Asian culture and classical music.

See also: Rationality.

Virtual Reality Could Explain the Fermi Paradox

May 9, 2008

Galaxies from deep space photo

A recent article in Technology Review by Nick Bostrom generated a lot of discussion about the Fermi paradox, which states:

The size and age of the universe suggest that many technologically advanced extraterrestrial civilizations ought to exist. However, this hypothesis seems inconsistent with the lack of observational evidence to support it.

I’ll add my 2 cents to this discussion by saying that there’s a possibility that any civilization that becomes advanced enough discovers that physical reality can’t hold a candle to virtual reality and makes the transition (alien transubstantiation, to coin a phrase). This could explain why they haven’t colonized the galaxy, or why we aren’t bathed in their radio communications.

Virtual worlds can be, in theory, both much more pleasant to inhabit, with unlimited freedom and none of the downsides of an existence based on crude physical processes, and also much more energy-efficient. Even without cold computing, it would take a lot less energy for an advanced civilization to do all that it wants to do within a simulation than by moving atoms around.

As I mentioned before, they could also think much faster, subjectively pushing back the heat death of the universe (while at the same time making communication with ’slow’ beings almost impossible).

I haven’t read all the serious papers on SETI and the Fermi paradox yet, but I’m pretty sure this is not an original theory. It’s just something that I haven’t seen mentioned yet and that I think deserves thinking about.

Update: Just to make things clearer, the kind of virtual reality I’m envisioning here is not one where you connect a biological body to a machine that sends it sensory information (like in the Matrix, for example). What I’m thinking of could probably be called ‘mind uploading’. There is no physical body, because one is not required. Everything would be inside the virtual world, kind of like how an artificial intelligence would not require a physical presence other than its computing substrate.

See also: Order in the Universe and Pattern Recognition

Ancient Wisdom is Actually Early Draft

May 8, 2008

Meditations by Marcus Aurelius book photo

For the past few days I’ve been reading (among other things, of course…) Meditations by Marcus Aurelius, a roman emperor who lived from 121 to 180. He is known as one of the most important stoic philosophers.

One thing that has been on my mind while reading this is the fact that many people are very impressed by anything labelled “ancient wisdom” and have a bias towards giving it more weight than more recent thought. Part of that inclination is rational: If something has endured that long, there’s a good chance that it is because of its quality. But another part of it is not rational. It is based on the false parallel between the fact that older humans are generally considered wiser and the fact that the text is old.

From our point of view, the text is old. But from the point of view of human knowledge, old texts are ‘younger’ than modern texts.

So while I appreciate many of Marcus Aurelius’ stoic principles (look for truth, mind your own business, don’t waste your time on frivolous things, clearly define what matters to you so you can better stick to it, be open to have your mind changed by evidence, eliminate the unnecessary, etc), I simply chuckle when I read about his conception of the universe, the gods, reality, destiny, dualism (soul separate from body), death, etc. This is the best information that was available at the time, but compared to what we know now, it’s clearly archaic and if the roman emperor had been born today, he probably wouldn’t believe what he believed then (not to mention his positions on slaves, women, homosexuals, etc).

Yet some people will automatically give more weight to these ideas than to ideas that come from more contemporary sources because they come from “ancient wisdom”. If you suffer from that bias, you should recognize it, look back on how it might have influenced you in the past, and keep it in mind for the future. Judge ideas on their own merit, not on their capacity to endure the passage of time. With some things, it doesn’t matter too much (f.ex. morality). With others, it changes everything (scientific fields such as cosmology, biology, physics, etc).

If more people realized this, fewer Bronze Age myths would be taken seriously.

7 Questions [Updated]

April 19, 2008

Here are 7 questions that I would like to ask to the following people: Michael Anissimov, Jamais Cascio, Tom McCabe, George Dvorsky, Steven Smithee, Randall Parker, and ‘Reason’ of Fight Aging.

Guys (no girls in my blogroll, sadly), you don’t have to reply if you don’t feel like it, but if you want to, just post the answers on your blog (I’ll link back to the entry) or in the comments here. Anybody else who wants to participate by answering one or many of the questions is welcome to do so in the comments. Thanks!

1. What would you nominate as the best idea that anybody has ever had? Why?

2. What non-fiction book do you think everybody should read? Why?

3. What fiction book do you think everybody should read? Why?

4. What technology has most changed your life in the past 10 years and why? What technology do you think will have the biggest impact on your life in the next 10 years and why?

5. What piece of music would you want with you on a desert island (that has a functioning stereo, of course)?

6. What is the most interesting thing you are working on/reading about/writing about these days?

7. Looking ahead, are you an optimist or a pessimist? Why?

Update: ‘Reason’ from Fight Aging has answered my questions here. Michael Anissimov has given his answers in the comments below (keep an eye out for his upcoming book!), as well as Jamais Cascio. Someone going by the name of ‘Infidel753′ gave his answers over on his blog. Also in the comments are answers by Jeremy Sheperd, Dustin Parsons, and Zach. George Dvorsky also replied on his blog. Many thanks!

My own answers can be found below.

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On the Nature of Time: Implications for Advanced Intelligence and SETI

April 13, 2008

I was reading and article in The Economist about lasers that can pulse extremely rapidly. We’re talking really fast, in the femtoseconds range (one billionth of one millionth of a second).

This got me thinking about the nature of time: Is there a theoretical limit to how fast something can happen? I’m not aware of any, but physics probably gives an answer one way or the other.

Still, even if there’s a limit somehow, there’s still quite a gigantic range. From femtoseconds to how long it takes for universes to die.

What if what we consider to be “real time” - how fast we move, talk, think - happens to be a glacial pace compared to other lifeforms? I’m not sure if biological intelligent life could have a subjective impression of time on such a scale because of limits to the speed of chemical reactions and the minimum complexity required for intelligence, but if an advanced civilization had made the transition to a non-biological substrate (such as super-computers), it would be conceivable that for them seconds could subjectively be the equivalent of millennia (or more) to us.

That would make communication unlikely. It would be a bit like trying to have a conversation with a rock. Even if you knew it was intelligent, you’d probably be bored out of your mind and either you would ignore it, or wait for it to speed up. And even if that’s too anthropocentric a way to look a the situation, there’s still the problem of saying something coherent mentioned below.

There’s always the possibility that such a fast intelligence would remembers how slow it once was, in its original bio-chemical form, and plan for future contact with lesser intelligences. Keep listening on the ’slow lane’, in other words. But even if it did that, could it really communicate with us coherently if between each syllable it had the time to evolve and change a lot (more than Homo Sapiens has had time to evolve so far)? Even if it creates the message in its ‘real-time’ and then slows it down to send it, will the entity that created the message have much in common with the subjectively much older entity that exists by the time the message has been completely sent?

See also: