Archive for the ‘Society’ Category

Humans are Tone Deaf to Probabilistic Reasoning

October 30, 2008

In his book The Blank Slate, Steven Pinker makes an interesting point about the fact that our brains haven’t evolved to intuitively grasp probabilities. It is an acquired skill like reading, not something innate like walking.

This can lead to scenarios like this:

Some experts are describing the risks of accident at some nuclear waste storage site. They describe various conceivable sequences of events that could lead to failure. For example, accidental drilling in the wrong place, erosion, undetected cracks in the rocks, which could lead to groundwater contamination. Then natural water movement, or volcanic activity, or a large meteorite impact could damage the site and release radioactive materials in the biosphere. The experts will estimate the probability of each event, or each chain of event, and numbers like 1 in X millions will come up.

To the experts, this is reassuring. They are basically saying: “This is pretty damn safe.” But they are speaking a different language from most people.

As Pinker says:

“When people hear these analyses, however, they are not reassured but become more fearful than ever — they hadn’t realized there are so, many ways for something to go wrong! They mentally tabulate the number of disaster scenarios, rather than mentally aggregating the probabilities of the disaster scenarios.”

How to make it better
How can we improve the situation in the hope that more rational decision-taking will take place? The only short-term realistic solution seems to be education. Just like we have no innate cognitive organs for abstract mathematics or reading but still can learn to use our brains to acquire these skills, we should try to make the understanding of probabilistic thinking more widespread.

We don’t expect people who have never studied physics at all to be any good at it, so why do we expect that decision-makers (and the voters/shareholders that supports them) will be able to understand probabilities - especially in complex situations - when they weigh the pros and cons of some proposal.

Seminar on Global Catastrophic Risks

October 8, 2008

November 14, 2008
Computer History Museum, Mountain View, CA

Organized by: Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies, the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology and the Lifeboat Foundation

A day-long seminar on threats to the future of humanity, natural and man-made, and the pro-active steps we can take to reduce these risks and build a more resilient civilization. Seminar participants are strongly encouraged to pre-order and review the Global Catastrophic Risks volume edited by Nick Bostrom and Milan Cirkovic, and contributed to by some of the faculty for this seminar.

This seminar will precede the futurist mega-gathering Convergence 08, November 15-16 at the same venue, which is co-sponsored by the IEET, Humanity Plus (World Transhumanist Association), the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence, the Immortality Institute, the Foresight Institute, the Long Now Foundation, the Methuselah Foundation, the Millenium Project, Reason Foundation and the Accelerating Studies Foundation.

SEMINAR FACULTY

  • Nick Bostrom Ph.D., Director, Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford University
  • Jamais Cascio, research affiliate, Institute for the Future
  • James J. Hughes Ph.D., Exec. Director, Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies
  • Mike Treder, Executive Director, Center for Responsible Nanotechnology
  • Eliezer Yudkowsky, Research Associate. Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
  • William Potter Ph.D., Director, James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies

Register here

Ancient Wisdom is Actually Early Draft

May 8, 2008

Meditations by Marcus Aurelius book photo

For the past few days I’ve been reading (among other things, of course…) Meditations by Marcus Aurelius, a roman emperor who lived from 121 to 180. He is known as one of the most important stoic philosophers.

One thing that has been on my mind while reading this is the fact that many people are very impressed by anything labelled “ancient wisdom” and have a bias towards giving it more weight than more recent thought. Part of that inclination is rational: If something has endured that long, there’s a good chance that it is because of its quality. But another part of it is not rational. It is based on the false parallel between the fact that older humans are generally considered wiser and the fact that the text is old.

From our point of view, the text is old. But from the point of view of human knowledge, old texts are ‘younger’ than modern texts.

So while I appreciate many of Marcus Aurelius’ stoic principles (look for truth, mind your own business, don’t waste your time on frivolous things, clearly define what matters to you so you can better stick to it, be open to have your mind changed by evidence, eliminate the unnecessary, etc), I simply chuckle when I read about his conception of the universe, the gods, reality, destiny, dualism (soul separate from body), death, etc. This is the best information that was available at the time, but compared to what we know now, it’s clearly archaic and if the roman emperor had been born today, he probably wouldn’t believe what he believed then (not to mention his positions on slaves, women, homosexuals, etc).

Yet some people will automatically give more weight to these ideas than to ideas that come from more contemporary sources because they come from “ancient wisdom”. If you suffer from that bias, you should recognize it, look back on how it might have influenced you in the past, and keep it in mind for the future. Judge ideas on their own merit, not on their capacity to endure the passage of time. With some things, it doesn’t matter too much (f.ex. morality). With others, it changes everything (scientific fields such as cosmology, biology, physics, etc).

If more people realized this, fewer Bronze Age myths would be taken seriously.

Dead Geniuses

March 13, 2008

Wolfgang Amadeus Mozart drawing image

Mozart was 35 years old when he died. By that time, he had composed about 600 musical pieces (that we know of). He started playing the piano at 3, and at 5 he was composing. As those who have seen the movie Amadeus know, he died before he could finish one of his greatest compositions, his Requiem. It didn’t happen like in the movie (which is fiction, based on a play), but he did die of a strange illness:

The cause of Mozart’s death cannot be determined with certainty. His death record listed “hitziges Frieselfieber” (”severe miliary fever”, referring to a rash that looks like millet seeds), a description that does not suffice to identify the cause as it would be diagnosed in modern medicine. Dozens of theories have been proposed, including trichinosis, influenza, mercury poisoning, and a rare kidney ailment. The practice of bleeding medical patients, common at that time, is also cited as a contributing cause. However, the most widely accepted version is that he died of acute rheumatic fever; he had had three or even four known attacks of it since his childhood, and this particular disease has a tendency to recur, leaving increasingly serious consequences each time, such as rampant infection and heart valve damage.

Could modern medicine have saved him? Probably. What if he had lived to be 77 like Haydn, 65 like Bach, or even 56 like Beethoven? What if he had lived to be 120? What if he was still alive and healthy (not a frail decrepit old man) today? What if these other genius composers I just mentioned also had lived longer or not died? That’s worth imagining, no?

Some individuals definitely contribute more to humanity than others (lets not kid ourselves). These statistical aberrations don’t happen very often, and it is regrettable to see them extinguished by random diseases, caused by old age or not. Don’t get me wrong, any loss of life is sad (except for some evil tyrants, maybe), but some deaths create bigger ripples in humanity’s pond than others.

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Internet Project: Re-Humanizing People in War-Torn Countries

February 29, 2008

Children in Iraq

There is a rule in big media: Don’t show regular people doing normal things in countries that your country is at war with (or might soon be at war with). So you will rarely see in the US media images of Afghans, Iraqis, Iranians, etc, just buying things at the market. Children playing. Normal street scenes that wouldn’t be out of place - except for the visible local cultural differences - anywhere in the world.

So that is what I would like to see. If there are any people living in or visiting these countries reading this, please flood youtube and your blogs with videos and photos of normal life. Lets get these images out as an antidote to the pernicious pro-war propaganda (which now works in more subtle ways than before, sinning as much by omission as by what it clearly says).

Anti-war people have shown enough blood & guts, cadavers and dismembered bodies. It’s time to try something else. I believe that people will be more empathic to images of people in situations they can related to rather than in the alien (for them) world of war.

For those interested in learning more, I highly recommend Antiwar.com and Antiwar Radio.

Photo: Children in Iraq.

Internet is the New Turn-of-the-Century Vienna

February 18, 2008

Map of Vienna, 1958 image

Vienna, the capital of Austria, was the place to be at the end of the 19th century. Unlike Paris and London, it was quite small: You could walk across it in half-an-hour. It had operas, theaters, museums for natural history and the arts, good banks, a stock market and some of the best universities in the world.

It was almost impossible not to constantly meet friends, colleagues and relatives on the street. Even the most famous and powerful people were close:

Opera singers, stage actors, and members of the royal family [were on the streets]. When a famous singer walked by, or one of the more than sixty archdukes drove by in their carriage, people would greet them with spontaneous applause. [...] Yet the best example - and almost unbelievable for us today - was [emperor] Franz Joseph himself, who frequently departed in just his carriage from the [...] palace. Anyone could walk within reach [...] and lift his hat to the white-haired emperor.

Within two generations, Haydn, Mozart, Beethoven and Schubert appeared on Vienna’s stages in rapid succession, something that is without precedent in history. Passion for music united all strata of the population. In the words of William Johnston: “Slovenliness might be tolerated in politics, but not in musical or theatrical performance.”

The elites did not confine themselves to exclusive social circles and ivory towers. In cafés, the Viennese met to talk business, exchanged ideas, debated issues and met people who worked in various fields. For students and young intellectuals, school was very hard at the elite gymnasiums, much closer to modern college than high-school, but their education did not stop outside the classroom: the cafés were also a place to learn and grow.

The better cafés subscribed to the major international journals of science, art and literature. Designed for the entertainment of customers, these subscriptions made the cafés function as a kind of private library.

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The Individuals-as-Groups Fallacy

January 25, 2008

Acropolis
Acropolis of Athens. Photo G. Larson. Public domain.

Democracy: It is the best system we know to take group decisions and it has a very strong and positive ‘brand’. But is it possible that we use it too much? By that I mean that there are many things that we decide democratically that actually don’t require group decisions to achieve the best results — there are many areas of life where individuals would be best positioned to decide what is best for themselves, but others force their decisions on them.

Humans have a tendency to see groups everywhere, and democracy can compound the downsides of that flaw. Liberals, conservatives, people of various religious beliefs, atheists, whites, latinos, blacks, arabs, jews, Americans, Chinese, Frenchmen, environmentalists, rich, poor, middle-class, urban, rural, majority, minorities, etc. Within that framework, people start to actually identify with their group and to dislike others, especially those they are in a power-struggle with. It’s a rational reaction because within a democratic system, some groups hold power over others and nobody wants a group they dislike to impose decisions on them. No, they’d rather impose their truth on others. This allows power-hungry politicians to play identify politics and try to have groups identify with them and thus overlook things that they would never accept on an individual basis. It’s all very tribal-like (you can also observe that phenomenon in sports).

When people stop seeing individuals, it can quickly lead to dehumanization and polarization (and we know where these can lead). They see caricatures and don’t take the time to get to know people who are in groups that they dislike: as soon as a label comes up, their minds shut down and whatever their reasons (based on reality or not) for disliking that group, they project them on the individual. “Surely if I hate jews, I’ll hate that jew.” “Surely if Frenchmen are annoying, I’ll be annoyed by that Frenchman.” Then confirmation bias kicks in…

Opposite factions rarely make the effort to really understand the positions/culture/etc of the other side(s) (liberals read liberal blogs, conservatives read conservative blogs), which means that few people change their minds and even fewer pick rational positions based on the best available information that can be gathered from all sides.

Free yourself from these shackles. Force yourself to see people as individuals, because that’s what they are. And so are you, and I’m sure you wouldn’t want others to look at you as some insignificant part of a larger over-simplistic monolith.

Irrationality Can Screw Up Your Life

January 24, 2008

As if we needed more evidence that rationality is a good thing, it now seems like irrationality is not just something that will lead you to have crazy beliefs and not understand how the world works; it can also kill you (among other things).

Scott Beaulier and Bryan Caplan argue in a paper titled Behavioral Economics and Perverse Effects of the Welfare State that the traditional explanation about crime being more attractive to the poor because their legal options to improve their situation are limited is unsatisfactory.

It might seem intuitive that more poor people commit crimes because they are trying to get out of poverty, but evidence shows that most crimes are not very lucrative.

Their theory?

What’s my alternative? Crime is just one of many, many “social pathologies” that are over-represented among the poor: alcoholism, drug abuse, smoking, obesity, illegitimacy, etc. None of these are good escape routes from poverty. So instead of trying to explain why “poverty causes crime” or “poverty causes obesity,” it makes sense to look for common causes of poverty and social pathologies.

Like what? In a paper just accepted by Kyklos, Scott Beaulier and I point to a simple candidate: irrationality. People who have biased beliefs about practical matters, and/or exercise poor impulse control, are likely to screw up their lives across the board. So it’s hardly surprising that poverty and self-destructive behavior go hand in hand. Rather than being a natural response to poverty, a lot of crime can be seen as objectively self-destructive behavior that happens to have an unusually large amount of collateral damage. (link)

This seems consistent with anecdotal evidence that poor but educated people aren’t as likely to suffer from these social pathologies (and by educated I most certainly am not talking only about formal schooling).

It’s not about how much is in your wallet, but how much is in your head. So get smart (you can if you have a growth mindset).