Archive for April, 2007

Distributed Computing

April 28, 2007

Note: This was originally published on a page under the “Information” section in the sidebar, but because I realize that many people might miss it - including those reading through the RSS feed - I’ve decided to re-publish it as a post.

einstein-at-home-screen-001

I’m a big fan of distributed computing. I think it’s a very elegant way to give scientists access to large quantities of computing power that would otherwise be wasted.

A good primer on the subject can be found here: How-To: Join Distributed Computing projects that benefit humanity

What if some of the world’s estimated 650 million PCs (and 250 million households with broadband Internet) could be linked to assist scientists in solving critical real world problems? This is exactly what humanitarian grid computing is about!

Donate your computer’s idle CPU time to humanitarian non-profit scientific research projects. Help find cures for diseases like cancer, AIDS, diabetes, MS, Alzheimer, or help predict the earth’s climate change, or advance science e.g. search for gravitational waves, help CERN build its latest particle accelerator or Berkeley search for extraterrestrial intelligence.

Project I currently support

Other projects that I like

  • Orbit@Home (I can’t crunch data because it’s still in development — see this post for more info about Asteroids and Near Earth Objects)
  • ClimatePrediction.net (climate models - when I have a faster computer, I’ll definitely support it)
  • BOINC Simap (public database of pre-calculated protein similarities. I used to crunch for this project, but now that the bottleneck is the amount of data to process and not the amount of computing power available, there is little point in me donating CPU cycles.)
  • Einstein@Home (search for gravity waves from spinning neutron stars)
  • Predictor@Home (predict protein structure from protein sequence — took a long hiatus, but is coming back)
  • Folding@Home (understanding protein folding — I like it, but it is so popular that your CPU cycles probably make a bigger marginal difference elsewhere, like Rosetta@Home)

How to help

The Berkeley Open Infrastructure for Network Computing, better known as BOINC, is the platform used by most projects (including all of those I listed above).

To get started there are three steps:

  1. Choose projects
  2. Download and run BOINC software
  3. Enter the project URLs, your email address, and password.

If you need more details, see this BOINC help page.

Happy data crunching!

rosetta-screenshot-001

First Two Weeks of This Blog

April 28, 2007

Since I haven’t been involved with a new blog in a long time - not since when blogs were just starting to become more mainstream - I’ve been wondering what the launch of a new one would look like.

Here are the stats for the first 2 weeks of this blog. I’ve written 7 posts including the short introduction one, and have gotten about 1,900 visits so far. That’s an average of 317 visits per post if I don’t count the short introduction, but as you can see from the graph below, it wasn’t evenly distributed.

Traffic for MGR, first two weeks

The first peak is mostly due to my Near Earth Objects and Asteroids post which generated some inbound links, a mention on a podcast and some Google traffic; the post about Carol Dweck’s theory got a lot less attention though Guy Kawasaki sent an email saying he liked it; Paul Graham’s Economic Theory sent over some Reddit and Google traffic, but not tons; the two posts about Craigslist (one, two) didn’t generate the public discussion I was hoping for even if it was interesting to get a direct response from Craig Newark and Jim Buckmaster, Craigslist’s CEO; finally, the other big peak came from my First Potentially Habitable Planet Outside the Solar System post, which I published a day before the story broke on CNN and other big media channels — that can probably explain the extra attention.

So far it would seem that astronomy posts are the most popular, and that’s cool because I intend to keep writing about that topic, but I also have ideas for more posts about psychology and sociology, security and cryptography, and various other things. Stay tuned, stay curious.

First Potentially Habitable Planet Outside the Solar System

April 24, 2007

red-dwarf-nasa-001
An artist’s impression of a planet in orbit around a red dwarf. Public domain image created by NASA.

A multi-national team of Swiss, French and Por­tu­guese sci­en­tists have made a very important discovery: The first potentially habitable planet outside of our solar system.

The newly discovered extrasolar planet is the smallest yet discovered. It is estimated to have a radius 50% bigger than the Earth, so gravity on it would be about twice as strong as it is here, and it orbits a red dwarf called Gliese 581 which is 20.40 light years away (relatively close to us) in the constellation Libra.

The exoplanet is 14 times closer to its star than the Earth is from the Sun and so its year - a full orbit around the star - is only 13 Earth days long. But the good news is that since the red dwarf is “smaller [one third of the mass] and cool­er than the Sun, the plan­et nev­ertheless would lie in its hab­it­a­ble zone—the re­gion around a star with suit­a­ble tem­pe­r­a­tures for liq­uid wa­ter.”

Av­er­age tem­pe­r­a­tures on this “supe­r-Earth” lie be­tween 0 and 40 de­grees Cel­si­us (32 to 104 de­grees Fahren­heit), “and wa­ter would thus be liq­uid,” said Sté­phane Udry of Switz­er­land’s Ge­ne­va Ob­serv­a­to­ry, lead au­thor of a pa­pe­r re­port­ing the re­sult. “Mod­els pre­dict that the plan­et should be ei­ther rock­y—like our Earth—or cov­ered with oceans,” he added. [...]

“Be­cause of its tem­pe­r­a­ture and rel­a­tive prox­im­i­ty, this plan­et will most prob­a­bly be a very im­por­tant tar­get of the fu­ture space mis­sions ded­i­cat­ed to the search for extra-terrestrial life. On the treas­ure map of the Uni­verse, one would be tempted to mark this plan­et with an X.”

All of this thanks to what seems to be an amazing instrument:

The find was pos­si­ble thanks to an in­stru­ment known as a spec­tro­graph on the Eu­ro­pe­an South­ern Ob­serv­a­to­ry’s 3.6-meter tel­e­scope at La Silla, Chil­e, ac­cord­ing to the group. The in­s­tru­ment, called the High Ac­cu­ra­cy Ra­di­al Ve­loc­i­ty for Plan­e­tary Search­er, is touted as one of the most suc­cess­ful tools for de­tecting exo­pla­n­ets to date.

The in­stru­ment meas­ured wig­gles in the star’s mo­tion cor­re­spond­ing to ve­loc­i­ty changes of just two to three me­ters per sec­ond—the speed of a brisk walk, ac­cord­ing to the Ge­ne­va Ob­serv­a­to­ry’s Mi­chel May­or, prin­ci­pal in­ves­ti­ga­tor for the in­stru­ment. Giv­en the re­sults so far, “Earth-mass plan­ets around red dwarfs are with­in reach” of dis­cov­ery, he pre­dicted.

libra-exoplanet-001

The ar­row marks the ap­prox­i­mate lo­ca­tion of the red dwarf star Gliese 581 with re­spect to the con­stel­la­tion Li­bra vi­si­ble in the south­ern sky. Image credit: World-Science.net

Sources:

Email Conversation with Craig Newmark

April 19, 2007

To my surprise, it is a lot easier than I expected to get in touch with Craig Newmark, the founder of Craigslist.

Yesterday, I published a proposal that explains how Craigslist could become a philanthropic giant, and before going to bed, I sent a email to Craig. I figured that he was probably so busy that he’d never get back to me, but when I woke up this morning, his response was waiting in my inbox (does he ever sleep?).

In short, I had a email conversation - about 10 emails - with Craig and Jim Buckmaster (CEO of Craigslist) and “for the foreseeable future” they don’t expect to implement something in the vein of my idea.

They haven’t convinced me to change my mind and I think the net amount of good that Craigslist does would be greater if they did something like what I proposed, but it’s their business and their decision.

I don’t want to reveal more than that here because it is a private conversation, but I was impressed by how nice and accessible they are. Kudos guys!

As I told Craig, if he ever changes his mind, I’ll fly to San Francisco and be there “clapping and smiling” for the announcement.

To Craig Newmark: Put Ads on Craigslist, Change the World.

April 18, 2007

Craigslist has massive untapped philanthropic potential. It could fund Wikipedia forever, support cancer research, provide books for public libraries in poor neighborhoods and so on. Sky’s the limit.

Allow me to explain.

The Plan

Lately, I’ve come across a couple of interviews with Craig Newmark of Craigslist fame (the first is a podcast on iinovate and the second is part of the excellent book Founders At Work). In these interviews, Craig (a really nice guy) makes it clear that making money is not high on his priority list and that his main motivations are to help people, create community and do good things.

Of course, nobody can force Craig to turn his baby into a money-making machine, but I can certainly try to convince him that he could do a lot more good with relatively little efforts, and the downsides would be, compared to the upsides, almost insignificant.

In the Founders At Work interview, Craig mentions that at the time of the interview (most probably in 2006) Craigslist.org was getting about 5 billion pageviews per month (see page 251).

If Craigslist was to put a single text ad on most inside pages of the site (it can be the smallest text ad available, and with the option for users to opt out and not see ads), even with a relatively low CPM of 2.0 - many sites get between 2 and 10 times that much - they would be making $10,000,000 each month, or about 120 million dollars a year. Almost a quarter of a billion if the CPM is 4.0. And I’m being conservative with these numbers since higher CPMs are possible and Craigslist’s pageviews are probably still growing. It could be much more.

Philanthropy

Money is just a tool; with that much of it, Craig could do so much good

What could he do? Anything!

How about:

The selection process for causes to support could even be democratic among Craigslist users.

Imagination is the only limit, really.

Logistics

So with a few hours of work changing HTML templates and negotiating a deal with publisher networks (with that kind of volume, you could get much better rates than regular websites), Craigslist could be making tens of millions of dollars each month to help make the world a better place. There probably wouldn’t even be a need to create a new entity to deal with this since the Craigslist Foundation could handle it. It think this should appeal strongly to Craig, a man with a strong “moral compass”.

One unobtrusive text ad on most of the inside pages should be enough. They could come from Google Adsense, Yahoo! Publisher Network or any other network. It doesn’t really matter. Best would be to rotate between different networks so as not to give too much leverage to a single one of them.

The beauty is that since the money made that way is kind of a “bonus” and Craigslist doesn’t really care about squeezing the maximum out of the ads, they can offer their users the option to opt out. That’s right, you could set their preference to “No thanks, I don’t want to support Craigslist’s philanthropy projects by seeing ads” or something like that. Nothing easier.

The Future

So how about it, Craig? Why not turn Craigslist into a philanthropic giant and do a lot more good?

newmark_craig
Craig Newmark

Note: Part of this was inspired by one of Jason Calacanis‘ ideas.

Paul Graham’s Economic Theory, Short Version (Part 1)

April 17, 2007

Paul Graham (not related to me as far as I know) has written a few excellent essays about wealth creation and distribution. While I don’t agree 100% with everything in them, I think they are great food for thought and here I will try to distill them to their core economic messages (less focus on startup tips). I will be brief since there’s no point in writing something that is as long as the original essays.

I am basing all of this on his two main essays on wealth, How to Make Wealth and Mind the Gap. I encourage you to read them in full, this is not a substitute for the whole thing.

How to Make Wealth

Paul Graham writes about making Money via Wealth creation:

This essay is about how to make money by creating wealth and getting paid for it. [...] There are plenty of other ways to get money, including chance, speculation, marriage, inheritance, theft, extortion, fraud, monopoly, graft, lobbying, counterfeiting, and prospecting.

The advantage of creating wealth, as a way to get rich, is not just that it’s more legitimate (many of the other methods are now illegal) but that it’s more straightforward. You just have to do something people want.

So Wealth is created by making something people want (it doesn’t have to be a physical object).

Productivity

Time * Productivity = X Quantity of Wealth (and usually Money)

Since Time is the same for everybody, the best way to increase X is to be more Productive. For example, it’s possible in a startup context to generate as much wealth in 4 year as a less productive person would generate in 40 years.

Here are some factors that influence productivity:

Negative/Positive

  • Being interrupted / Working without interruption
  • Limited by job description / Can use all your skills
  • Bureaucracy (meetings, middle-managers, etc) / Get things done without significant drag
  • Large group of people with various levels of competence / Small group of smart people
  • No significant monetary incentives / Large and proportional monetary incentives

Important to remember:

Startups are not magic. They don’t change the laws of wealth creation. They just represent a point at the far end of the curve. There is a conservation law at work here: if you want to make a million dollars, you have to endure a million dollars’ worth of pain. [...]

It’s not a good idea to use famous rich people as examples, because the press only write about the very richest, and these tend to be outliers. Bill Gates is a smart, determined, and hardworking man, but you need more than that to make as much money as he has. You also need to be very lucky.

The Amount of Wealth in the World is not Fixed

Here Money must not be confused with Wealth.

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Fixed Mindset vs. Growth Mindset: Which One Are You?

April 15, 2007

Here is an excerpt from an article about Carol Dweck, a professor of psychology at Stanford University:

Through more than three decades of systematic research, [Carol Dweck] has been figuring out answers to why some people achieve their potential while equally talented others don’t—why some become Muhammad Ali and others Mike Tyson. The key, she found, isn’t ability; it’s whether you look at ability as something inherent that needs to be demonstrated or as something that can be developed.

To anyone who is into personal growth and self-improvement, this seems obvious. But clearly, it is not obvious to everybody: look at the this diagram by Nigel Holmes representing the two types of mindsets and I’ll sure you’ll recognize the attitudes of many people you know.

Fixed Mindset

Let’s have a look, starting with the Fixed Mindset side:

fixed-001

People who hold these beliefs think that “they are the way they are”, but that doesn’t mean that they have less of a desire for a positive self-image than anyone else. So of course they want to perform well and look smart. But to achieve these goals…

fixed-002

By definition, a challenge is hard and success is not assured, so rather than risk failing and negatively impacting their self-image, they will often avoid challenges and stick to what they know they can do well.

fixed-003

Same with obstacles. The difference here, as I see it, is that challenges are things that you can decide to do while obstacles are external forces that get in your way.

fixed-004

What’s the point of working hard and making efforts if afterwards you are still on square one? If your worldview tells you that effort is an unpleasant thing that doesn’t really pay dividends, then the smart thing to do is to avoid it as much as possible.

fixed-005

Useful negative feedback is ignored in the best of cases, and taken as an insult the rest of the time. The Fixed Mindset logically leads you to believe that any criticism of your capabilities is criticism of you. This usually discourages the people around and after a while they stop giving any negative feedback, further isolating the person from external influences that could generate some change.

fixed-006

The success of others is seen as a benchmark against which the person looks bad. Usually when others succeed, people with a Fixed Mindset will try to convince themselves and the people around them that the success was due to either luck (after all, almost everything is due to luck in the Fixed Mindset world) or objectionable actions. In some cases, they will even try to tarnish the success of others by bringing up things that are completely unrelated (”Yes, but did you know about his…”).

fixed-007

As a result, they don’t reach their full potential and their beliefs feed on themselves: They don’t change or improve much with time, if at all, and so to them this confirms that “they are as they are”.

Growth Mindset

Let’s now look at the Growth Mindset:

growth-001

People who hold the Growth Mindset believe that intelligence can be developed, that the brain is like a muscle that can be trained. This leads to the desire to improve.

(more…)

Near Earth Objects and Asteroids: Are We Whistling in the Dark?

April 14, 2007

asteroid-951-Gaspra

The universe is mostly empty, but not quite. Asteroids, also called minor planets or planetoids, float around and can potentially be dangerous for the Earth. Just looking at a map of the asteroids in the solar system should be enough to convince most people that we are not as alone in our corner of space as we sometimes might think.

A study on asteroids from 2002 said:

Asteroids in our Solar System may be more numerous than previously thought, according to the first systematic search for these objects performed in the infrared, with ESA’s Infrared Space Observatory, ISO. The ISO Deep Asteroid Search indicates that there are between 1.1 million and 1.9 million ’space rocks’ larger than 1 kilometre in diameter in the so-called ‘main asteroid belt’, about twice as many as previously believed.

Don’t panic, there’s this reassuring sentence:

However, astronomers think it is premature to revise current assessments of the risk of the Earth being hit by an asteroid.

But what comes right after it reveals how problematic things can be:

Despite being in our own Solar System, asteroids can be more difficult to study than very distant galaxies. With sizes of up to one thousand kilometres in diameter, the brightness of these rocky objects may vary considerably in just a few minutes. They move very quickly with respect to the stars - they have been dubbed ‘vermin of the sky‘ because they often appear as trails on long exposure images. This elusiveness explains why their actual number and size distribution remains uncertain. Most of the almost 40,000 asteroids catalogued so far (1) orbit the Sun forming the ‘main asteroid belt’, between Mars and Jupiter, too far to pose any threat to Earth. However, space-watchers do keep a closer eye on another category of asteroids, the ‘Near Earth Asteroids’ or ‘NEAs’, which are those whose orbits cross, or are likely to cross, that of our planet.

Though the asteroid belt itself, being relatively far from Earth, is not directly a problem (the inner edge of it is farther than Mars’ orbit, which is itself at half the distance between the Earth and the Sun, or 0.5 Astronomical Unit), it is important to better understand it because that’s where most of the “Near Earth Asteroids” (NEAs) or “Near Earth Objects” (NEOs) come from, and those share the same characteristics as belt asteroids (elusive “vermin of the sky”).

most NEA are believed to be former main belt asteroids. In the main belt there are four ’special’ regions where Jupiter’s gravitational influence is especially disruptive; originally, most asteroids currently known as NEA suffered collisions which resulted in them ending up in one of those four key regions, and because of Jupiter’s gravitational influence their orbits quickly evolved into Earth-crossing orbits. Therefore, by studying the asteroids near these so-called ’source regions’ in the main belt astronomers can learn about NEA. About 500 NEAs have been found so far*, and none of them pose any threat to Earth in this century.

* The study above was published in 2002. According to this NASA page, the number in 2002 was 523, but in 2007 (so far, up to April) it is up to 707 known “large” (one kilometer of diameter or larger) Near Earth Asteroids (NEAs).

The total number of known NEAs was 2165 at the end of 2002 and 4647 in April 2007. Here is a graph of the data from 1980 to November 2006:

nasa-neas-1980-2006

Another interesting page on the NASA site is the NEO Earth Close Approaches page. It shows the recent and upcoming “close approaches” with the date, the miss distance (calculated in Astronomical Units, one being 149,597,870.691 kilometers, and “lunar distances”, one being 384,000 kilometers), the estimated diameter of the object, and the velocity of the NEO relative to the Earth’s (in kilometer per second).

(more…)

Moving in

April 14, 2007

I’ve been blogging under a pseudonym at Blogspot.com since 2003, but that blog has turned into mostly a public bookmark for interesting articles and videos I come across. I have decided that I needed a new home for my non-TreeHugger writings.

I have acquired a few domain names that will point here:

  • MichaelGR.com
  • MichaelGrahamRichard.com
  • Michael-Graham-Richard.com

I hope that I will be able to generate enough posts to make this place interesting, but TreeHugger is my first love and it is taking a lot of my time and energy, so posting will most likely be sporadic.